2007 U.S. advertising spending is expected to grow just 0.7 percent over 2006 to US$283.8 billion, according to McCann Erickson’s well-respected advertising forecaster, Robert Coen. In his biannual Insider’s Report, Coen downgraded his 2007 forecast for the second time in a year. In his June 2007 Insider’s Report, Coen forecasted a 3.1 percent increase over 2006, and in December 2006 he estimated a 4.8 percent increase. The report was presented at the annual UBS Media Conference in New York. Companies on the agenda to present today, Dec. 4, include R.H. Donnelley, Yellow Pages Income Fund, Idearc Media, Google and eBay, among many others.
The slower U.S. growth is mainly attributed to negative growth on the local level as businesses have pulled back on traditional advertising such as newspapers, radio and TV. Coen estimates that local newspaper spend is down 8 percent, local radio is down 6 percent, and local TV spend is down 3 percent over 2006. In total, Coen reports total local media will be down 3.5 percent in 2007 over the prior year to US$95.6 billion. Meanwhile, national advertising is estimated to be up 3.1 percent to US$188.1 billion.
In 2008, Coen believes the U.S. ad market will grow 3.7 percent to US$294.3 billion behind events that drive heavy advertising including the presidential election, Super Bowl and the Summer Olympics. However, he does not anticipate that growth to continue in 2009.
Globally, Coen anticipates better growth than in the United States driven by countries that are experiencing overall strong economic growth such as China and India. His worldwide estimate for 2008 ad spending is US$653.9 billion, up 4.6 percent over 2007. The global figure is driven downward by the slowed U.S. growth noted above. In looking only at “overseas” markets (all markets except the United States), growth is anticipated at 5.3 percent over 2007.