BIA/Kelsey Analyst 2017 Predictions: A New Report

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What’s the BIA/Kelsey analyst outlook for 2017?  Like we do every year, predictions have been made and brought together across BIA/Kelsey analyst coverage areas. And the report publishes today.

In addition to the sneak peek provided last week, four of the predictions are listed below.

Prediction: National brands will outpace regional and local SMBs in total ad spend to target local audiences.

Rick Ducey, BIA/Kelsey’s Managing Director expects, “National brands will outpace regional and local small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) in total ad spend growth to target local audiences. Agencies and marketers for these national brands will increase their ad spend targeting local audiences by $17.1 billion from 2015 through 2020. Regional advertisers’ spending will be relatively flat, and local SMBs will increase their spend by $10.6 billion.”

Prediction: Voice search will reach 25 percent of mobile search volume.

Michael Boland, BIA/Kelsey’s Chief Analyst and VP, Content, predicts, “Voice search will reach 25 percent of mobile search volume. This will mostly happen through personal assistant apps such as Google Assistant, Microsoft Cortana, Apple’s Siri and Amazon’s Alexa. Google will emerge as the winner in what will be known as the “personal assistant app wars. These wars will be won with data, which Google possesses from its search index and knowledge graph. Amazon’s Alexa will shine for product and commerce applications, while Microsoft and Apple will seek to excel with vertically specific content niches where they can establish best of breed content with data partners (i.e., using weather data).”

Prediction: The provision of “skinny bundles” and consumers opting to “cut the cord” will negatively affect the cable/satellite business.

Mark Fratrik, BIA/Kelsey’s Chief Economist and SVP, foresees, “The provision of “skinny bundles” and consumers opting to “cut the cord” will negatively affect the cable/satellite business during the next five years, with a possible benefit accruing to local television broadcasters. Those consumers will have fewer cable networks to choose from and could easily start watching more local broadcast programming, so long as they are equipped with receivers connected to digital antennas.

Prediction: Print will continue to evolve and maintain a large share of small businesses’ dollars.

Celine Matthiessen, BIA/Kelsey’s Vice President, Analysis & Insights, anticipates, “Print is evolving and still holds a large share of small businesses’ ad dollars. This will continue as smart companies extend print campaigns through native and digital targeted media. In our forecast for 2017, $53 billion will be spent on local print. Newspapers, magazines and Yellow Pages are offsetting declines in print revenue with digital. These traditional digital efforts are projected to grow 4.0 percent annually from 2017 to 2021. Newspapers and Yellow Pages companies continue to extend their advertisers’ reach through large networks via programmatic ad buying beyond their owned and operated properties, which levels the playing field and helps them to retain advertisers that are shifting their share to digital.”

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BIA/Kelsey clients can receive the full report and anyone else can purchase it here.

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