In the run-up to Facebook’s ballyhooed IPO, BIA/Kelsey has released Wave III of its U.S. Social Media Advertising Forecast, which reveals overall market acceleration in 2012 and 2013, and steady growth in locally targeted social spend.
From 2011 to 2016, U.S. social ad revenues will climb from $3.8 billion to $9.8 billion (21 percent CAGR). Several drivers will spur this growth: increased market awareness and adoption, improvement in ad unit performance, and greater penetration of dynamic formats such as video (with YouTube as the leader).
The social advertising forecast distinguishes display (Facebook, LinkedIn) from non-display (Twitter’s “promoted” products). However, the emergence of “native” advertising formats — Facebook’s Sponsored Stories appearing directly in newsfeeds, as just one example — creates new definitional challenges in display, and online/interactive as a whole.
Local social ad spend will pace with the methodical growth of the larger geotargeted display market, rising from $840 million in 2011 to $3.1 billion in 2016 (29.8 percent CAGR). This would account for 8 percent of the local online/interactive market at the end of the five-year range.
Social Local Media clients can access the full report here, which includes analysis of the key forecast drivers and examination of trends that could shape the market in future waves.