EMarketer reports today that the U.S. mobile video market will be just under $550 million this year, growing to $1.34 billion in 2014 (25 percent CAGR).
This is divided between pay-per-download (75 percent), subscription based (18 percent) and ad-supported (6 percent) video. By 2014, eMarketer predicts that will shift to 67 percent for pay-per-download, 18 percent for subscriptions and 15 percent for ad supported (see absolute numbers below).
Of these revenue sources, ad support will grow the fastest (60 percent CAGR), presumably due to ad buying ecosystems yet to develop. Advertising, as it often does, will lag behind consumer adoption but will catch up throughout the forecast period, driven by continually improving technology and related adoption.
This will come about as the mobile video viewing population itself grows from 24 million to 57 million (23 percent CAGR). This is clearly being driven by a combination of faster wireless networks, larger screens (smartphone penetration) and an increasingly cloud-based media environment.