ILM:09: Falling Off the Cliff

BIA/Kelsey President Neal Polachek and SVP Matt Booth kicked off the ILM:09 conference by presenting BIA/Kelsey’s local revenue forecast and the state of interactive local media. The bottom line is that they continue to predict that local media will fall from $155.3 billion in 2008 to $144.4 billion in 2014, a CAGR of -1.4 percent.

They believe there will continue to be a massive shift from traditional media to digital media with some companies “falling off the cliff.” (An hour later, keynote speaker NBC Universal EVP Brian Buchwald confirmed his belief in this scenario.) The winner in the digital business is search, which has already begun to rebound. Matt and Neal anticipate growth of 15 percent through 2013. Geotargeted display, video, mobile, e-mail and reputation management will meet previously predicted growth expectations. Importantly, the traditional sales forces will be more competitive with each other.

Finally, Neal reiterated that presence, performance and permanence is a strong macro trend that will continue to bolster interactive local media in the short to intermediate term.

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